Steven A. Lone

The recession appears to be behind us in the United States, and the early stages of an economic expansion have been taking shape. There is a growing debate over whether an expanding economy, in conjunction with historic fiscal and monetary policies, may cause inflation to overheat. This begs the question, will we see a reflationary … Read more

Negative yielding debt has been one of the most extraordinary and peculiar consequences of global monetary policy initiatives, turning the basic premise of fixed income investing upside down. Instead of one party lending another party money, and the lender receiving interest in return for the risk incurred, since 2018 the levels of outstanding debt in … Read more

US economy grew slower than expected US gross domestic product (GDP) grew 4% quarter over quarter on an annualized basis in the fourth quarter according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, below Bloomberg consensus forecasts of 4.2%. Government and consumer spending were notable drags on growth in the fourth quarter, though the strength in the third quarter … Read more

The onset of the global pandemic shocked the economy and triggered one of the deepest recessions ever in 2020. As investors fled to “safe haven” Treasuries and the Federal Reserve (Fed) lowered interest rates, the yield on the 10-year Treasury traded as low as 0.31% intraday on March 9, 2020 (its lowest closing yield was … Read more

Heading into 2020, we maintained our preference for growth stocks as we believed that earnings growth would become harder to come by as the economic cycle aged, and their robust earnings growth was greatly appealing. These same growth stocks bucked historical precedent and proved to be well insulated from the economic effects of the stay-at-home … Read more

2020 was a good year for stock investors despite unprecedented challenges. After being down more than 30% at the March 2020 lows, the S&P 500 Index ended the year with a solid 18.4% total return. Last year marked the first time the index ended a year positive after being down at least 30% during that … Read more

The Federal Reserve (Fed) demonstrated Wednesday in its final policy meeting of the year—again—that it has not exhausted the tools it has for supporting the economy and still holds plenty in reserve. The Fed kept its target policy rate at 0–0.25% but sharpened its guidance on how long it would continue its bond purchase program, also … Read more

COVID-19 cases have been on the rise in the US, particularly in the Midwest. This latest wave of the virus and related restrictions have begun to hamstring economic growth at a time when momentum was already fading as we entered the fourth quarter, based on the December iteration of the Federal Reserve (Fed)’s Beige Book. … Read more

Stimulus talks in Washington, DC, are getting a lot of attention from investors—and for good reason. The midpoint of the two offers—roughly $1.6 trillion from the White House and $2.2 trillion from US House Democrats—is about 9% of last year’s US gross domestic product (source: Bureau of Labor Statistics). That’s a big deal in terms … Read more