Stocks Open Higher

US economy grew slower than expected US gross domestic product (GDP) grew 4% quarter over quarter on an annualized basis in the fourth quarter according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, below Bloomberg consensus forecasts of 4.2%. Government and consumer spending were notable drags on growth in the fourth quarter, though the strength in the third quarter … Read more

Our View on Financials Has Improved

Heading into 2020, we maintained our preference for growth stocks as we believed that earnings growth would become harder to come by as the economic cycle aged, and their robust earnings growth was greatly appealing. These same growth stocks bucked historical precedent and proved to be well insulated from the economic effects of the stay-at-home … Read more

Equity Winners and Losers in 2020

2020 was a good year for stock investors despite unprecedented challenges. After being down more than 30% at the March 2020 lows, the S&P 500 Index ended the year with a solid 18.4% total return. Last year marked the first time the index ended a year positive after being down at least 30% during that … Read more

The Fed Reaches into Its Policy Toolbox Again

The Federal Reserve (Fed) demonstrated Wednesday in its final policy meeting of the year—again—that it has not exhausted the tools it has for supporting the economy and still holds plenty in reserve. The Fed kept its target policy rate at 0–0.25% but sharpened its guidance on how long it would continue its bond purchase program, also … Read more

Stocks Are Sparked for Gains in 2021

A strong earnings rebound in 2021 may allow stocks to grow into somewhat elevated valuations. We see an S&P 500 Index fair value target range of 3,850–3,900 in 2021, based on a price-to-earnings ratio of around 20 and our preliminary 2022 earnings per share estimate of $190, with potential for upside with better-than-expected vaccine progress. Read more … Read more

Outlook 2021: Powering Forward

More than most years, it’s hard to look ahead to the next year, to 2021, without looking back at 2020. A global pandemic, a massive economic collapse, a bear market, a surprisingly sharp reversal, a hotly contested election where passions ran high, the impact of lockdowns — it was an unusual year of extraordinary challenges. … Read more

Covid Surge Stalling Europe’s Recovery

We continue to monitor real-time COVID-19 and economic data to provide insight into how the pandemic is affecting economies around the world. Traditional economic data sometimes can be too slow to pick up the changes that are occurring. Today we focus on Europe. “The high-frequency data shows that the recovery from COVID-19 related economic disruption … Read more

Follow the Bouncing Stimulus Ball

Stimulus talks in Washington, DC, are getting a lot of attention from investors—and for good reason. The midpoint of the two offers—roughly $1.6 trillion from the White House and $2.2 trillion from US House Democrats—is about 9% of last year’s US gross domestic product (source: Bureau of Labor Statistics). That’s a big deal in terms … Read more

COVID-19 Trends Weaken the Case for Investing in Europe

In recent months, we have warmed up to Europe as a destination for equity investments in global portfolios. Through July, Europe had done a relatively good job containing the first wave of COVID-19, and cases were plummeting to multi-month lows. Meanwhile, the United States was struggling with its second wave—or perhaps the second phase of … Read more