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Leading Indicators Turn Positive

Yesterday, The Conference Board released last month’s reading for its Leading Economic Index (LEI), a composite of leading data series, which showed a month-over-month increase of 2.8%. As seen in the LPL Chart of the Day, the return to positive territory follows three straight months of negative monthly growth. ”We noted that the pace of … Read more

Next Hike We See May Be 2023

The Federal Reserve (Fed) completed its third scheduled policy meeting of the year Wednesday, June 10, and continued to signal strong support for the economy, committing to keeping rates near zero until it is confident of a recovery and maintaining bond purchases (“quantitative easing”), at least at the current level. “Despite some early signs of … Read more

Best 50-day Rally Ever

In many ways, what we’ve seen so far in 2020 has been both record-breaking and devastating. From the S&P 500 Index peak on February 19 to the bear market lows March 23, stocks lost 33.9%. Now, 50 trading days later, stocks have gained 39.6%, for the largest 50-day rally since the S&P 500 moved to … Read more

Beige Book Shows Suppressed Sentiment

Despite the gradual reopening of the economy in several states, sentiment on Main Street remains suppressed, as the effects of COVID-19 appear to be keeping a lid on American optimism in the most recent Federal Reserve (Fed) Beige Book. In the Beige Book, the Fed presents qualitative observations made by community bankers and business owners—or … Read more

Some Encouraging Real-time Data

Most economic charts we look at in the LPL Research Department look alike. Many segments of the US economy came to an abrupt halt in March when the lockdowns and business closures began, making most economic charts covering March and April look like a steep drop on a roller coaster. Two months later, the economy … Read more

The Small Business’s Guide to Surviving the Coronavirus Pandemic

Whether your business has been temporarily closed by a state shelter-in-place order or is still operating as a provider of essential services, balancing your revenue needs with protecting the safety of your employees and customers can be an unprecedented challenge. Learn more about some of the resources available to help small businesses survive this pandemic, as well as … Read more

How Expensive Are Stocks Right Now?

As stocks rallied 30% off the March 23 lows and earnings expectations were cut dramatically, valuations have become increasingly concerning for many investors (including some high-profile hedge fund managers being quoted in the financial press). As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the forward (next 12 months) price-to-earnings (PE) multiple for the S&P … Read more

Challenges Abound in the US Service Sector

Recent economic data confirms that the US economy has entered a recession, led by the consumer, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy based on gross domestic product (GDP).  The consumer spending collapse was evident from March’s personal consumption expenditures data released last Wednesday, which showed a record 7.5% month-over-month drop in consumer … Read more

Global Central Banks All In

The Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB), and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) all met in the last week and while the show of power was minimal compared to recent weeks, they collectively reasserted their resolve to do whatever is necessary to support the global economy through the COVID-19 economic crisis. Rates are … Read more