Fiscal stimulus, which was central to the market rebound in the last year, may start moving to the sidelines over the rest of 2021 and into 2022 as the recovery continues. Economic growth can compensate for the loss of government checks to households and businesses, but potential tax increases may be more challenging for markets … Read more
After one of the worst starts to a year for fixed income, returns may not get much better from here. Long-term interest rates have traded sideways recently but we expect rates to potentially rise further, which would put downward pressure on bond prices. We’re not giving up on high-quality fixed income though, as Treasury securities … Read more
After one of the best starts to a bull market in history, the rally has started to show signs of fatigue. A strong economic recovery lies ahead as the roepening continues, bolstering a very strong earnings outlook that is helping stocks grow into elevated valuations. However, in the second half of the year, as inflationary … Read more
It’s embarrasing to admit this but in our earnings season preview on April 12, when the consensus estimate reflected a nearly 24% increase, we wrote that S&P 500 Index earnings growth for the first quarter could potentially exceed 30%. Fast forward to today and earnings growth for the quarter is on pace to double—yes, double—that 24% … Read more
“Sell in May and go away”1 is probably the most widely cited stock market cliché in history. Every year a barrage of Wall Street commentaries, media stories, and investor questions flood in about the popular stock market adage. We tackle this commonly cited seasonal pattern and why some seasonal weakness could make sense in 2021. THE … Read more
Last week we discussed whether stock prices might be reflecting peak optimism. In that commentary we noted that while sentiment may be overly optimistic and a pickup in volatility would be totally normal, strong breadth measures suggest stocks still may have more upside. This week we tackle that same topic of peak optimism, but by … Read more
The outstanding fourth-quarter earnings season we had in 2020 is a tough act to follow, but 2021’s first quarter has the makings of another potentially great earnings season. The reopening of the economy continues to move forward, and corporate America has done an excellent job managing through the pandemic. In fact, it won’t take much … Read more
The economic recovery is gaining steam. In fact, so much so that the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) had to raise their U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for 2021 by more than 3 percentage points this week (from 3.2% to 6.5%). That’s a big change from December 2020, even if it does … Read more
The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine on March 1 added another important tool in the fight against COVID-19. President Biden reported Wednesday that thanks to a deal with Merck & Co. to manufacture this easy to transport, single-shot vaccine, there will be enough supply to vaccinate the whole … Read more
The US economy had a tumultuous year in 2020, to say the least, and after rebounding strongly in the third quarter, the holiday surge in COVID-19 cases increased the risk that the economy may stumble heading into the new year. The sharp increase in new COVID-19 cases led to additional curbs on activity to contain … Read more
The recession appears to be behind us in the United States, and the early stages of an economic expansion have been taking shape. There is a growing debate over whether an expanding economy, in conjunction with historic fiscal and monetary policies, may cause inflation to overheat. This begs the question, will we see a reflationary … Read more
Negative yielding debt has been one of the most extraordinary and peculiar consequences of global monetary policy initiatives, turning the basic premise of fixed income investing upside down. Instead of one party lending another party money, and the lender receiving interest in return for the risk incurred, since 2018 the levels of outstanding debt in … Read more
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